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A report issued Monday by the U.S. government showed core inflation rising 2.5 percent in the last 12 months for its biggest one-year gain since January 2010.
Everyday living is becoming expensive, it seems.
But there are some U.S. towns in which the cost of living remains affordable — and downright cheap — as compared to the national average. They’re detailed in a BusinessWeek piece titled “The Cheapest 25 Cities In The U.S“.
In comparing costs across 340 urban areas as compiled by the Council of Community & Economic Research, cities in Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma ranked consistently high. Cities in Hawaii did not.
Take note, though. Although the BusinessWeek piece highlights inexpensive cities in which to live, a low cost of living does not necessarily correlate to a high standard of living. Cost-leader Harlingen, Texas, for example, boasts a poverty rate nearly triple the national average.
Other “Inexpensive Cities” feature similar poverty rates.
The Top 10 “cheapest cities”, as shown by BusinessWeek are:
- Harlingen, Texas
- Pueblo, Colorado
- Pryor Creek, Oklahoma
- McAllen, Texas
- Cookeville, Tennessee
- Commerce-Hunt County, Texas
- Brownsville, Texas
- Fort Smith, Arkansas
- Muskogee, Oklahoma
- Springfield, Illinois
And, at the other end of the spectrum, the top 5 most expensive cities/areas were, in order, Manhattan, New York; Brooklyn, New York; Honolulu, Hawaii; San Francisco, CA; and Queens, New York.
Manhattan’s cost of living is more than twice the national average.
The complete list is available at the BusinessWeek website.
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The Federal Reserve released its April 2011 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes Wednesday. In the hours since, mortgage markets have worsened; rates in North Georgia are higher by 1/8 percent this morning, at least.
The “Fed Minutes” is published 8 times annually, three week after each scheduled FOMC meeting. The minutes are the Federal Reserve’s official recap of the conversations and debates that shaped the prior FOMC session.
Another way to consider the Fed Minutes is as the companion piece to the more well-known FOMC press release. The press release is issued on the day of adjournment, and is brief, narrow, and high-level. The statement makes broad comments on the economy and outlines new monetary policy.
By contrast, the Fed Minutes is delayed, lengthy, and rife with details. The minutes highlights arguments and discussion points between Fed members, and digs deep into underlying economic issues.
The FOMC press release is measured in paragraphs. The Fed Minutes is measured in pages.
Here is some of what the Fed discussed last month:
- On inflation : Higher levels are “transitory”; will level-off with commodity prices
- On housing : The market remains depressed. “Vacant properties” are harming construction.
- On stimulus : The Fed will stick to its $600 billion support plan
In addition, at its meeting, the Federal Reserve discussed an exit strategy for its market support. The details are undecided, but the debate shows that the Fed is anticipated a change in policy sometime soon.
Wall Street estimates that a gradual economic tightening will begin within 12 months.
Mortgage rates have been fading since mid-April. The Fed Minutes may be the catalyst of a reversal. The Federal Reserve expects growth in the U.S. economy and growth tends to boost stock markets at the expense of bonds.
As bond markets fall, mortgage rates in Hiawassee and Ellijay rise.
Currently, Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as 4.63% — the lowest of the year.
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Be prepared for Friday morning. Mortgage rates and home affordability could worsen quickly. At 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its April Non-Farm Payrolls report and momentum has been strong.
The monthly jobs report is a market-mover and analysts expect that 196,000 new jobs were added last month. If those expectations are exceeded — by even a little — Wall Street would take it mean “economic strength” and the stock market would be boosted.
Too bad for rate shoppers, though; a move like that would also lead to higher mortgage rates throughout North Georgia. This is because, coming out of a recession, reports of economic strength tend to push mortgage rates up. We’ve seen it happen multiple times in the last 8 months.
Since losing more than 7 million jobs between 2008 and 2009, employers have added 1.3 million jobs back to the economy. And we’re learning that there’s plans for fewer job cuts in the future. It’s clear that the jobs market is improving and this is why tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report is so important.
A “weak economy” helped keep mortgage rates low for a very long time. A strengthening economy will reverse that tide.
So, consider your personal risk tolerance today, in advance of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. If the thought of rising mortgage rates makes you nervous, call your loan officer and lock in a rate today. Once tomorrow’s data is released, after all, the market might look changed.
Related articles
- Geopolitics Have Mortgage Rates Poised To Change (thefrontporchview.com)
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Mortgage rates are up 0.875% since mid-November, causing home buyer purchasing power across the Blue Ridge Mountains to fall more than 10 percent since.
Persistent concerns over inflation are a major reason why and this week’s Consumer Price Index did little to quell fears. CPI rose for the third straight month last month.
Wall Street was not surprised.
As the economy has picked up steam since late-2010, the Federal Reserve has held the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent, and kept its $600 billion bond plan moving forward. The Fed believes this is necessary to support the economy in the near-term.
Over the long-term, however, Wall Street worries that these programs may cause the economy may expand too far, too fast, and into runaway inflation.
Inflation pressures mortgage rates to rise.
Inflation is an economic concept; defined as when a currency loses its value. Something that used to cost $1.00 now costs $1.05, for example. It’s not that the goods themselves are more expensive, per se. It’s that the money used to buy the goods is worth less.
Because of inflation, it takes more money to buy the same amount of product.
This is a big deal in the mortgage markets because mortgage rates come from the price of mortgage bonds, and mortgage bonds are denominated, bought, and sold in U.S. dollars. When inflation in present, the dollar loses its value and, therefore, so do mortgage bonds.
When mortgage bonds lose value, mortgage rates go up.
Inflation fears are harming Georgia home buyers. The Cost of Living has reached a record level, surpassing the former peak set in July 2008. Mortgage rates would be rising more right now if not for the Middle East unrest.
So long as inflation concerns persist, mortgage rates should trend higher over the next few quarters. If you’re wondering whether to lock or float your mortgage rate, consider locking today’s sure thing.
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The Federal Reserve released its January 25-26, 2011 meeting minutes Wednesday afternoon. Georgia Mortgage Rates have been in flux since.
Fed Minutes are comprehensive recaps of Federal Open Market Committee meetings; a detailed look at the debates and discussions that shape our nation’s monetary policy. As such, they’re released 8 times annually; 3 weeks after the most recent FOMC meeting.
Fed Minutes can be viewed as the unabridged version of the succinct, more well-known “Fed Statement” that’s released to markets immediately post-adjournment.
Just how much more lengthy are Fed Minutes?
- The January 25-26, 2011 statement contains 395 words
- The January 25-26, 2011 meeting minutes contains 6,916 words
If the Fed Statement is an executive summary, the Fed Minutes is a novel. And, the extra words matter.
When the Federal Reserve publishes its minutes, it’s offering clues about the group’s next policy-making steps. As an example, in the January minutes, the Fed improved its outlook for economic growth; lowered its projections for the Unemployment Rate; and removed its concern for deflation.
In addition, the Fed discussed the potential for food-and-energy-cost-induced inflation, but labeled it as a minor economic risk at this point in time.
Bond markets are mixed on the text of the Fed Minutes.
Although the Fed indicates a willingness to allow inflation to occur, it appears ready to act in case inflation goes too high. One way that the Fed responds to rising inflation is to raise the Fed Funds Rate and many economists believe this will start happening by late-2011 or early-2012.
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If consumer spending is a keystone element in the U.S. economic recovery, a full-on rebound is likely underway.
Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its national January Retail Sales figures and for the seventh straight month, the data surpassed expectations. Last month’s retail figures climbed 0.3 percent as total sales receipts reached an all-time high.
It’s good news for the economy which is scratching back after a prolonged recession, but decidedly bad news for people in want of a mortgage across the state of Georgia. This includes home buyers for vacation homes for sale, and would-be refinancers.
Because consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy, Retail Sales growth means more economic growth and that draws Wall Street’s dollars toward riskier investments, including equities, at the expense of safer investments such as mortgage-backed bonds.
On the heels of the Retail Sales report’s release, bond prices are falling this morning. As a consequence, mortgage rates are rising. It’s the same pattern we’ve seen since mid-November — “good news” about the economy sparks a stock market frenzy, causing mortgage bonds to rise.
A sampling of other recent good-for-the-economy stories include:
- Corporate earnings are rising quickly (Marketwatch)
- Existing Home Sales up 12% month-over-month (CNN Money)
- The Fed says the economy looks “brighter” (Bloomberg)
The days of 4 percent, 30-year fixed rate mortgages are over. 5 percent is the new market benchmark. Unless the economy keeps showing strength. Then, that number may rise to 6 percent.
If you’re thinking of buying a home for sale in Ga or refinancing a home, consider how rising rates will hit your budget. You may want to take that next step sooner than you had planned — if only to protect your monthly payments.
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On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report.
More commonly called “the jobs report”, the government’s data include raw employment figures and the Unemployment Rate.
The jobs report hit the wires at 8:30 AM ET today. It’s making big waves in the mortgage market and may help home affordability for buyers in Blue Ridge, GA. this weekend, and would-be refinancers across The North Georgia Mountains.
For this month, and for the rest of 2011, employment data will figure big in mortgage markets.
7 million jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009. Fewer than one million jobs were recovered in 2010. For the economy to fully recover, analysts believe that jobs growth is paramount.
Consider how job creation influences the economy:
- More jobs means more income and more spending
- More spending means more business growth
- More business growth means more job creation
It’s a self-reinforcing cycle and, as business grows, the economy expands, pushing stock markets higher. This tends to lead mortgage rates higher, too, because bonds can lose their appeal when stock markets gain.
According to the government, 103,000 jobs were created in December, and October’s and November’s figures were revised higher by a net 50,000 jobs for a total of 153,000 new jobs created. Economists expected a net gain of 135,000.
The Unemployment rate fell to 9.4, its lowest level since mid-2009.
Wall Street is voting with its dollars right now. Mortgage bonds are improving, pointing to slightly lower mortgage rates today.
The December jobs report was “average”, and home affordability is improving.
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The Federal Reserve released its December 14 meeting minutes Tuesday afternoon. There wasn’t much there to disturb mortgage markets, thankfully.
The “Fed Minutes” is an official recap of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It’s published 8 times annually, 3 weeks after the FOMC adjourns.
The Fed Minutes is similar to the meeting minutes released after a corporate conference or condo association gathering in that they provide additional details about the conversation and debate that occurred between meeting attendees.
The Fed Minutes are a lengthy companion to the Federal Reserve’s brief, more well-known, post-meeting press release. But, whereas the press release is measured in paragraphs, the minutes are measured in pages.
Here is some of what the Fed discussed last month:
- On inflation : Core inflation levels “trend lower”; disinflation risks are low.
- On housing : The market is still “quite depressed”; demand is “very weak”.
- On stimulus : The Fed will stick to its $600 billion support plan
In response, conforming mortgage rates in Georgia are unchanged today.
The no-change in rates is welcome news for this month’s home buyers and other people wanting to get a jump on the “Spring Buying Season”. Mortgage rates have been trending higher since November, erasing 7 months of gains in 7 weeks, and rapidly approaching the psychologically-important 5 percent figure.
Currently, Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as 4.86%.
As compared to November, mortgage rates are higher. As compared to history, however, mortgage rates remain low. If you are still floating a rate, or have otherwise not locked, your opportunity may be ending. Once the economy moves to higher gear, mortgage rates will be among the first of the casualties.
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The Federal Reserve released its November 2-3, 2010 meeting minutes Tuesday afternoon. Mortgage rates in Georgia have been on the move since.
The Fed Minutes is a comprehensive review of Federal Open Market Committee meetings; a detailed look at the debates and discussions that shape our country’s monetary policy. The report is published 3 weeks to-the-day after the FOMC adjourns.
Fed Minutes add depth to the briefer, more well-known “statement” to the markets which is issued upon adjournment. As a comparison:
- The November 3 statement contained 497 words
- The November 3 meeting minutes contained 6,623 words
If the Fed Statement is the executive summary, the Fed Minutes is the novel. And, the extra words matter.
When the Federal Reserve publishes its minutes, it gives clues about the groups next policy-making steps. For example, in November’s minutes, it’s revealed that the Fed discussed setting inflation targets for the economy; holding occasional policy briefings for the press; and, working to set yields on instruments such as the 10-year Treasury note.
In addition, the Federal Reserve acknowledged a video conference hosted October 15, the second such “unannounced” meeting of the year. The other was May 9, 2010.
Bond markets have not taken kindly to the Fed Minutes. The minutes show a propensity toward Fed “action”, most of which markets believe to be inflationary. Inflation leads to higher mortgage rates and that’s exactly what we’ve seen.
As compared to Tuesday morning, mortgage applicants in Blairsville are finding conforming and FHA mortgage rates to be higher by as much as 0.375 percent. In “real life” terms, assuming a 30-year term, that’s an extra $264 in annual mortgage payments per $100,000 borrowed.
If you’re still rate shopping, consider getting locked today. As a result of the recent shift, mortgage rates are now at a 4-month high.
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The Federal Reserve released its September 21, 2010 meeting minutes Tuesday afternoon. Mortgage rates in North Georgia are slightly higher today.
It’s unwelcome news for this season’s home buyers, and existing homeowners with plans to grab lower rates. Mortgage rates made new lows last week and may have reached a turn-around point.
The “Fed Minutes” is published 8 times annually, and is the official meeting recap for the Federal Open Market Committee. Similar to the meeting minutes released after a corporate conference or condo association gathering, the Fed Minutes details the conversation and debate between meeting attendees.
Minutes are the lengthy companion to the Fed’s brief, post-meeting press release.
Because of its content, the Fed Minutes is closely read by Wall Street and economists. It’s insight into the talk that shapes our nation’s monetary policy and, within the text, there’s often clues about the Fed’s next move.
Here’s some of what the Fed discussed last month:
- On inflation : It’s running at lower-than-optimal levels
- On housing : Post-tax credit, housing stalled in July
- On stimulus : The Fed may intervene in open markets within the next few months
The over-riding theme within the minutes was that the U.S. economy is growing a steady pace, albeit slower than what’s optimal. The Fed is prepared to push things along if the economy slows further and news like that is helping stock markets.
Bond markets are losing. Rates are rising.
For now, mortgage rates hover near all-time lows. If you haven’t locked a mortgage rate yet, your window may be closing. Once the economy turns around for certain, mortgage rates will be among the first of the casualties.
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