Standard & Poors released its November 2011 Case-Shiller Index this week. The index measures the change in home prices from month-to-month, and year-to-year, in select U.S. cities.

According to the data, for the second straight month, home values fell in 19 of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets. In addition, also for the second straight month, Phoenix, Arizona was the lone Case-Shiller-tracked city in which home values rose.

Overall, November’s Case-Shiller Index showed a 1 percent decrease in home values between October and November 2011, and a near-4 percent decrease between November 2010 and 2011, putting home values at roughly the same levels as 8 years ago. Don’t read too far into it, however.

The Case-Shiller Index, though widely-cited, remains widely-flawed. As a buyer or seller in the North Georgia Mountains, for example, , relying on the Case-Shiller Index for market research can lead you to improper conclusions. To understand the Case Shiller Index’s methodology is to understand why.

First, the Case-Shiller Index draws its data from a very limited geography.

There are more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide. The Case-Shiller Index tracks just 20 of them. And they’re not the 20 largest, either. Four of the Top 10 Most Populous U.S. Cities are excluded (Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Jose) whereas Minneapolis and Tampa are not.

Minneapolis is the 48th largest city in the United States. Tampa is #55.

Next, when Case-Shiller Index gathers its data from its 20 cities, it only includes the home sale data of single-family, detached homes. This means that sales of condominiums and multi-unit homes are specifically excluded from the index. There are some cities — Chicago and New York, for example — where condominium sales represent a large percentage of the overall market. The Case-Shiller Index ignores that.

And, lastly, when the Case-Shiller Index is published, it’s published on a 60-day delay. Its data is not “current”, therefore, and does little to tell buyers and sellers in Blue Ridge, GA. and the country what’s happening in their home markets right this minute. Instead, the Case-Shiller Index tells us how the housing market looked two months ago.

If you’re active in the real estate market, either as a buyer or a seller, the Case-Shiller Index does you little good. For real-time data that actionable, speak to a real estate professional instead. It’s where you’ll find your best, most reliable and relevant information.

Will your North Georgia Mountain Home gain value over the next 12 months? Nobody can know for sure of course, but should recent housing trends continue, there’s concrete cause for optimism.

The housing economy has suffered since 2007, knocking home values down nearly 20% nationwide and an average of almost 35% here in the North Georgia Mountain Real Estate Market. And while some areas have fared better as compared to others but, in general, home values are down.

Mortgage rates are down, too, and that’s good news for buyers in Blairsville and Blue Ridge, GA. The combination of low rates and low prices has led home affordability to an all-time high. As you’ll hear in this 4-minute interview with NBC’s The Today Show, carrying a mortgage costs 25% less per month as compared to just 3 years ago.

Some other notes from the interview include :

• There are more buyers out looking for homes today, which leads to more sales
• The housing market is expected to get gradually better, month-by-month, in 2012
• Foreclosures will continue to be a big part of the housing market

With housing supplies shrinking, buyers throughout North Georgia may find their best “deals” today — before the Spring Buying Season begins in February.

However, we can’t forget that housing markets are local — not national. Each town and neighborhood has its own market drivers and prices where you live may have already started to climb.

For accurate, up-to-date data on the housing market, Contact Us or give us a call today at 877.633.8186.

As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time. Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who’s right and who’s wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals “experts” with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It’s tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some “on-the-record” predictions for 2012 :

• Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
• Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker)
• Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (says the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers in Blairsville and nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a “prediction” from fact at times.

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we’re inclined to believe what we read and hear. This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future — whether it’s housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else — are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion. Predictions are guesses about what might come next — nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today’s market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions in and around the North Georgia Mountains and nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates “with points” price in the 3s. What 2012 has in store we just can’t know.

Standard & Poor’s released its September 2011 Case-Shiller Index this week. The index tracks home price changes in select cities between months, quarters, and years.

The Case-Shiller Index for September showed drastic devaluations nationwide.

As compared to August, home values fell throughout 17 of the index’s 20 tracked markets, led by Atlanta’s 5.9% drop. On an annual basis, home values have now returned to early-2003 levels.

That said, home buyers and sellers in the North Georgia Mountains should be cautious when referencing the Case-Shiller Index. The index is a flawed metric and, as such, can lead to improper conclusions about the housing market overall.

The Case-Shiller Index’s first flaw is its most obvious — its limited sample set. 

According to Wikipedia, there are more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide. Yet, the Case-Shiller Index includes data from just 20 of them in its findings. These 20 cities account for fewer than 1% of all U.S. cities, and just a small percentage of the overall U.S. population.

The “national figures” aren’t really national, in other words.

Even on a city-by-city basis, the Case-Shiller Index gets it wrong.

By lumping disparate neighborhoods into a single, city-wide result, the index ignores the relative strength of one area at the expense of another. In the aforementioned Atlanta, there are areas that fared much better than September’s -5.9% as cited by Case-Shiller. Some areas fared much worse.

A second flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is it’s methodology for measuring changes in home value. The index only considers “repeat sales” of the same home in its findings, and those homes must be single-family, detached property. Condominiums, multi-family homes, and new construction are not included.

In some cities — Chicago, for example — “excluded” property types can account for a large percentage of total monthly sales.

And, third, the Case-Shiller Index is flawed by “age”.

Because Standard & Poor’s publishes on a 60-day delay, the Case-Shiller Index is reporting on a housing that no longer exists. Sales that closed in September are based on contracts written from June-August –a time-frame that’s 6 months aged.

The best use of the Case-Shiller Index is as an analysis tool for economists and policy-makers interested in the long-term trends of U.S. housing. The index does very little good for every day buyers and sellers, unfortunately.

For up-to-date, accurate market data, talk to a real estate professional instead.

Has housing turned the corner for good?

The June 2011 Case-Shiller Index reading posted strong numbers across the board, with each of the index’s 20 tracked markets showing home price improvement from May.

Some markets — Chicago and Minneapolis — rose as much as 3.2 percent.

The rise in values is nothing about which to get overly excited, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what multiple data sets have already shown about the summer housing market; that it was stronger than the spring market, and that a recovery is underway, but occurring locally, at different rates.

For example, the June 2011 Case-Shiller Index shows the following :

• Denver, Dallas, Washington D.C., and the “California Cities” bottomed in 2009. Each has shown steady improvement since.
• None of the Case-Shiller cities showed negative growth between May and June 2011.
• 12 of Case-Shiller’s tracked cities have improved over 3 consecutive months.

The answer to the question is YES. For the past 90 days Home Values are on the Rise. Here in the North Georgia Mountains, our communities of Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Blairsville and Hiawassee has seen Home Values as a cumulative average drop 2% over the past year. However, since June of 2011, our Residential Real Estate Market has experienced a surge of nearly 14% in Median Sold Price. See Full Report Below.

North Georgia Mountain August 2011 Median Sold Price Report

In isolation, these statistics appear promising, but it’s important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index is a backward-looking data set, focusing on just a portion of the national housing economy.

As an illustration, the Case-Shiller Index’s “national report” only includes data from 20 cities nationwide. They’re not the 20 biggest cities, either. Smaller metropolitan areas such as Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#51) are included.

Larger ones including Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5) and San Jose (#10) are not.

In addition, the Case-Shiller index fails to track sales of condominiums, multi-unit homes and new construction. In some markets, including Chicago, these excluded home type can represent a large share of the overall market.

The Case-Shiller Index is a fine data set for policy makers and economists. It describes the broader housing market and shows long-term trends. For the individual home buyer in Hiawassee , however, it’s much less useful. More than “broad data”, you want focused data that’s current and relevant.

The best place for data like that is a local real estate agent.

Related articles

• Home Values Climb Rise Slightly Nationwide In April (thefrontporchview.com)
• Buyer Opportunities Open With Pending Sales Slipping (thefrontporchview.com)

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Foreclosures and other “Distressed Properties” sell at discounts of 20 percent of more. Discounts of that size affect pricing in the broader housing market, too. It’s among the reasons why median home prices are dropping.

Not all markets are affected equally, however. In a recent BusinessWeek analysis, it was shown that one-third of the nation’s 50 most expensive small towns experienced a median price increase between 2010 and 2011.

Topped by Sagaponack, New York — a town of only 582 residents — each of the cities carries a median home price of more than $1,000,000, and a total population of 10,000 or less.

The list is dominated by New York and California, with 22 and 13 entrants, respectively. The rest of the towns are spread throughout the country, including Chilmark, MA (#28), Yarrow Point, WA (#29) and Belle Meade, TN (#48).

The complete Top 10 follows:

1. Sagaponack, N.Y.
2. Jupiter Island, FL.
3. Kings Point, N.Y.
4. Los Altos Hills, CA.
5. Water Mill, N.Y.
6. Belvedere, CA.
7. Rolling Hills, CA.
8. Hidden HIlls, CA.
9. Sands Point, N.Y.
10. Woodside, CA.

See the complete list at the BusinessWeek website.

The March Case-Shiller Index was released this week and it corroborates the findings of the government’s most recent Home Price Index — home values are slipping nationwide.

According to the Case-Shiller Index’s publisher, Standard & Poors, home values fell in March from the year prior.

The March report was among the worst Case-Shiller Index readings in 3 years. On a monthly basis, 18 of 20 tracked markets worsened. Only Seattle and Washington, D.C. showed improvement, rising 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively.

On an annual basis, price degradation was even worse.

Washington, D.C. is the only tracked market to post higher home values for March 2011 as compared to March 2010. The national index has now dropped to mid-2002 levels.

As a buyer in today’s market, though, you can’t take the Case-Shiller Index at face value. It’s methodology is far too flawed to be the “final word” in home prices.

The first big Case-Shiller Index flaw is its relatively small sample size. S&P positions the Case-Shiller Index as a national index but its data comes from just 20 cities total. And they’re not the 20 most populous cities, either. Notably missing from the Case-Shiller Index list are Houston (#4), Philadelphia (#5), San Antonio (#7) and San Jose (#10).

Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#55) are included, by contrast.

A second Case-Shiller flaw is how it measures a change in home price. Because the index throws out all sales except for “repeat sales” of the same home, the Case-Shiller Index fails to capture the “complete” U.S. market. It also specifically excludes condominiums and multi-family homes.

In some cities — such as Chicago — homes of these types can represent a large percentage of the market.

And, lastly, a third Case-Shiller Index flaw is that it’s on a 2-month delay. It’s June and we’re only now getting home data from March. Today’s market is similar — but not the same — to what buyers and sellers faced in March. The Case-Shiller Index is far less useful than real-time data of a city or neighborhood.

The Case-Shiller Index is more useful to economists and policy-makers than to everyday buyers and sellers in Blue Ridge and Blairsville, GA. For better real estate data for your particular neighborhood, please Contact Me and I will be more than happy to complete a Comparable Market Analysis for you.

A Real Estate Agent can tell you which homes have sold in the last 7 days, and at what prices. The Case-Shiller Index cannot.

The Case-Shiller Index posted awful numbers in its most recent reading. Each of the index’s 20 tracked markets showed home price deterioration between September’s and October’s respective reports. Some markets fell as much as 2.9 percent.

The drop in values is nothing about which to panic, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what we already knew. It’s a common theme with the Case-Shiller Index, actually; a trait traced to the report’s methodology.

The Case-Shiller Index is an imperfect housing indicator with 3 inherent flaws.

The first flaw is that the index makes use of a limited data set, tracking values in just 20 cities nationwide. That data set is then projected across the more than 3,100 other municipalities in the United States. The “national figures”, therefore, aren’t really national.

The second flaw is that, even within the tracked 20 cities, not all home sales are included. The Case-Shiller Index only tracks sales of single-family, detached homes, and within that market subset, it only uses homes that are “repeat sales”. This specifically excludes sales of condominiums and multi-family homes, and new construction.

Lastly, Case-Shiller Index’s third flaw is its “age”. The Case-Shiller Index reports on a 60-day delay, and the values it reports are tied to contracts written even longer ago.  Sales contracts from July and August are responsible for October’s closings so when we see the Case-Shiller Index as reported in December, some of the data it’s reporting is 5 months old already. That’s too old to be relevant.

Looking back at 2010, housing was at its weakest between May and August. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the most recent Case-Shiller Index shows significant weakness.  Looking forward, we should expect the report to improve — especially because of how strong New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales have been since summer.

The Case-Shiller Index is helpful for economists and policy-makers. It’s not much good for individual homeowners, however. For accurate, real-time housing data, talk to a real estate professional instead.

Existing Home Sales jumped another 6 percent in November, the report’s third month of improvement since bottoming in July.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, a quarter-million more existing homes were sold during the annual period ending in November as compared to October.  An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction.

Additionally, the national housing supply dropped by a full month. At the current pace of existing home sales, the complete stock of homes for sale will be exhausted in 9.5 months.

November’s strong housing data is yet another signal to buyers in Hiawassee and Ellijay that the housing market’s foundation has been rebuilt, and that a rebound is imminent.  It’s helped that there are great “deals” on which for buyers to pounce.

In November, Short Sales and Foreclosures accounted for one-third of all existing homes sold, and carried an average price discount of 10 percent and 15 percent, respectively, as compared to non-distressed sales.

Repeat buyers continue to power the market, too, representing more than half of all home buyers.

• First-time buyers : 32% of all buyers
• Investors : 19% of all buyers
• Repeat buyers : 51% of all buyers

This breakdown suggests that housing has regained its footing. First-Time Home Buyers can’t support a market long-term like repeat buyers can and, as compared to 12 months ago, the percentage of repeat buyers is now up 14 points.

Home Buyers take note. Raw sales volume is rising and available inventory is dropping. Basic supply-and-demand tells us that this will lead home prices higher. Furthermore, mortgage rates are rising quickly, increasing the cost of home ownership.

If buying a home is a part of your plan for 2011, consider accelerating your purchase time frame. Existing homes account for more than 80% of homes sold nationwide. If the market keeps improving like this, your home affordability will worsen.

Last quarter, with home prices still relatively low and mortgage rates making new, all-time lows almost weekly, the cost of home ownership was extraordinarily low in Georgia and most U.S. markets.

According to the National Association of Home Builders’ quarterly Home Opportunity Index, 72.5 percent of all new and existing homes sold between June-September 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income. This ties the all-time high for home affordability, set in the first quarter of 2009.

The data also underscores that, when compared to historical norms, it’s a fantastic time to be a Hiawassee home buyer.

Prior to 2009, the Home Opportunity Index rarely topped 65. The index has remained above 70 ever since.

All real estate is local, though, and on a city-by-city basis, home affordability varied last quarter.

For example, 96% of homes sold in Kokomo, IN are affordable for families earning the area’s median income. This handily beat the average figure and led the nation. Looking at major cities, Indianapolis led the pack.

93% of homes in Indianapolis are affordable to families earning the area’s median income. This ranks #9 nationwide.

On the opposite end of the affordability scale is the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ region. For the 10th consecutive quarter, the New York Metro region ranks last in U.S. home affordability. Just 23% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, although this is 3 points higher versus Q1 2010.

The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available online.

Regardless of where your hometown ranks relative to its neighbors, home affordability remains high as compared to historical values. That said, with mortgage rates rising and home sales expected to climb this winter, it’s unlikely that the Home Opportunity Index will improve.

Buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you planned to buy in mid-2011, consider moving up your time frame.