5-Year ARM Falls To Historic Lows
The interest rate differential between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages continues to widen and has now reached historic levels.
There’s never been a better time to lock an ARM.
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, homeowners in Hiawassee and Blairsville Georgia who lock their mortgage rate today will save 129 basis points on rate, on average, by choosing a 5-year ARM as their mortgage product as compared to a 30-year fixed rate loan.
The average 30-year fixed rate is 4.51%. The average 5-year ARM rate is 3.22%.
It’s the biggest interest rate spread between fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgage rates in Freddie Mac’s recorded history; a gap which is the result, in part, of the 5-year ARM dropping to all-time lows this week.
Rates for the 5-year ARM are even lower than during last year’s historic Refi Boom.
Putting today’s “spread” in action against a hypothetical $250,000 loan size, a homeowner that chooses an ARM over a fixed-rate loan would save $184.30 monthly, and would have $500 fewer closing costs.
That’s a 5-year savings of $11,558 — nearly triple what you would have saved just 2 years ago.
The main reason why today’s adjustable-rate mortgages are priced so aggressively relative to comparable fixed-rate loans is that Wall Street expects the economy to drag for the next several quarters, after which it expects an acceleration.
ARMs tend to reflect short-term expectations for the U.S. economy which is why short-term mortgage rates are dropping. Fixed products, by contrast, take a longer view and expectations for an economic rebound are pulling fixed-rate mortgage rates up.
For now, mortgage applicants can exploit the difference — especially those who plan to move within the next 5 years — but adjustable-rate mortgages aren’t right for everyone. ARMs carry particular risks about which you should be aware before locking.
Before you choose an ARM, Contact Me and I will put you in touch with a loan officer who can talk you through it.
Is This The Start Of A Refi Boom? Mortgage Rates Fall For 8 Straight Weeks.
Mortgage rates are falling, falling, falling.
On a wave of uncertainty about Greece and its debt; and weaker-than-expected economic data at home, conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have fallen to levels not seen since December 2, 2010.
Mortgage rates have dropped 8 weeks in a row. Not even last year’s Refi Boom produced an 8-week winning streak. This season’s streak is historic.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage now averages 4.49% nationally, down 42 basis points, or 0.42%, since early-April. For every $100,000 borrowed, that equates to a monthly savings of $25.24.
Adjustable-rate mortgages have shed even more, giving back 50 basis points since the streak began.
Because of low rates, it’s an excellent time to buy or refinance a home relative to just a few weeks ago. Note, though, that depending on where you live, you may find your quoted interest rates to be slightly higher or lower than what Freddie Mac reports in its survey. This is because the Freddie Mac figure is a national average.
Mortgage rates and fees vary by region:
- Northeast : 4.49 with 0.6 points
- Southeast : 4.52 with 0.8 points
- North Central : 4.52 with 0.6 points
- Southeast : 4.52 with 0.6 points
- West : 4.45 with 0.8 points
You’ll notice that, in the West Region, rates tend to be low and fees tend to be high; in the North Central Region, the opposite is true. You should expect North Georgia to have its own pricing norm within this region, too.
Is there a particular rate-and-fee setup that suits you best? The good news is that you can ask for it — no matter where you live.
If having the absolute lowest mortgage rate is more important to you than having the absolute lowest fees, ask your loan officer to structure your loan in the “West” style. Or, if low costs are more your style, ask for them.
Mortgage rates appears as if they’re headed lower but don’t forget how quickly markets can change. Once they do, mortgage rates in Blue Ridge and Blairsville should spike. Exploit today’s market while you still can.
Temporary Conforming Loan Limits To Change Soon
If you live in a high-cost area, keep an eye on your calendar. Effective October 1, 2011, temporary conforming loan limits will be lowered nationwide. Perhaps by as much as 14 percent.
These limits range up to $729,750 currently.
“Temporary loan limits” were enacted as part of the government’s 2008 economic stimulus package. At the time, the financial sector was entering its crisis and private mortgage lending had all but disappeared. Financing was scarce for both homeowners and home buyers for whom loan sizes exceeded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s national $417,000 limit — even for those with excellent credit and income.
The issue was exacerbated in places like New York City where local home prices routinely topped $1 million. Buyers unable or unwilling to bring a substantial down payment to closing (i.e. $600,000 or more) found themselves without financing.
The February 2008 package addressed this issue, using a math formula to change loan limits in Blue Ridge, Blairsville and even nationwide. The government assigned to each U.S. metropolitan area a temporary, new loan size limit equal to 25% greater than its respective median home sale price, not to fall below $417,000, and not to exceed $729,750.
Then, later that same year, the Housing and Recovery Act made “high-cost areas” permanent, but with a reduced 15% increase to median home prices, and loan sizes not to exceed $625,500.
These new limits take effect October 1, 2011 — one day after the temporary limits expire.
If you live in a high-cost area, therefore, take note. Mortgage rates may be low, but the amount of loan for which you qualify may be less than you expect, and you may find yourself ineligible.
Whether you’re planning a refinance or a purchase, keep an eye on the calendar.
The complete list of high-cost areas is available online.
Fed Minutes Put The Heat On Mortgage Rates To Rise
The Federal Reserve released its April 2011 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes Wednesday. In the hours since, mortgage markets have worsened; rates in North Georgia are higher by 1/8 percent this morning, at least.
The “Fed Minutes” is published 8 times annually, three week after each scheduled FOMC meeting. The minutes are the Federal Reserve’s official recap of the conversations and debates that shaped the prior FOMC session.
Another way to consider the Fed Minutes is as the companion piece to the more well-known FOMC press release. The press release is issued on the day of adjournment, and is brief, narrow, and high-level. The statement makes broad comments on the economy and outlines new monetary policy.
By contrast, the Fed Minutes is delayed, lengthy, and rife with details. The minutes highlights arguments and discussion points between Fed members, and digs deep into underlying economic issues.
The FOMC press release is measured in paragraphs. The Fed Minutes is measured in pages.
Here is some of what the Fed discussed last month:
- On inflation : Higher levels are “transitory”; will level-off with commodity prices
- On housing : The market remains depressed. “Vacant properties” are harming construction.
- On stimulus : The Fed will stick to its $600 billion support plan
In addition, at its meeting, the Federal Reserve discussed an exit strategy for its market support. The details are undecided, but the debate shows that the Fed is anticipated a change in policy sometime soon.
Wall Street estimates that a gradual economic tightening will begin within 12 months.
Mortgage rates have been fading since mid-April. The Fed Minutes may be the catalyst of a reversal. The Federal Reserve expects growth in the U.S. economy and growth tends to boost stock markets at the expense of bonds.
As bond markets fall, mortgage rates in Hiawassee and Ellijay rise.
Currently, Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as 4.63% — the lowest of the year.
Are Foreclosures And Short Sales Distorting “Home Price Trackers?”
In an echo of February’s Case-Shiller Index report, the government’s own home price-tracker — the Home Price Index — showed home values slipping between January and February 2011.
The Federal Home Finance Agency data had home values down 1.6 percent nationwide in February, on average, marking the fourth straight month in which prices fell.
Furthermore, all 9 regions posted losses from the month prior:
- Mountain Region : -3.7% from January
- East South Central : -0.6% from January
- South Atlantic : -0.9% from January
- New England : -2.0% from January
Before you draw conclusions, however, note that the data at which we’re looking has several major flaws to it.
First, it’s old. We’re now in the first week of May and the FHFA’s most recent release only covers through February, a time period ending roughly 60 days ago. That’s a long delay and today’s purchase market in Hiawassee and Blairsville looks much different from the one of February.
Just ask a real estate agent and they’ll tell you — purchase activity is rising.
Second, the FHFA Home Price Index reports on home value changes between consecutive Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac-securitized transactions only. This might be creating an overweight of “distressed properties” in the index which, in turn, drags down valuations.
Distressed homes account for 40% of all home resales and typically sell at 20 percent discounts.
And, lastly, although the Home Price Index is a national report, real estate as a market is decidedly not national. To the contrary, it’s extremely local. As an individual, you don’t buy, sell or own homes in all 50 states. You buy them in a specific state, and a specific neighborhood ; in places like the Blue Ridge Mountains.
The national data is useless to you in that respect.
We can’t discount the Home Price Index data entirely, but should remember that it paints a clearer picture of where housing has been versus where housing is going. As a home buyer or homeowner, it’s the future of home values that matters more.
