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Mortgage rates are surging.
Over the last 7 days, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have jumped 24 basis points, or 0.24%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
It’s the largest 1-week spike in mortgage rates in recent history.
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage now averages 5.05% nationally. This is much, much higher than what we saw last November when mortgage rates were 4.17% and looked headed to the 3s.
That’s not the case today. In fact, it’s the opposite.
Mortgage rates have risen quickly and fiercely this year. As of this morning, mortgage rates are higher over 9 consecutive days, marking the longest mortgage rate losing streak in the last 6 years, at least.
Note, however, that when you call your loan officer or bank, you may not be quoted the same 5.05% rate as shown by Freddie Mac. This is because Freddie Mac-reported rates are national averages. Any given mortgage rate may be higher or lower depending on its region.
As an illustration, look how this week’s rates breaks down by area:
- Northeast : 5.07 with 0.7 points
- Southeast : 4.99 with 0.9 points
- North Central : 5.09 with 0.6 points
- Southeast : 5.06 with 0.6 points
- West : 5.02 with 0.8 points
In other words, the rate-and-fee combination you’d be offered in your home town of Hiawassee or Blairsville is different from what you’d be offered if you lived somewhere else. In the Southeast, rates tend to be low and fees tend to be high; in the North Central U.S., it’s the opposite.
The good news is that, as a mortgage applicant, you can have your pricing whichever way you prefer. If getting the absolute lowest mortgage rate is what’s most important to you, have your loan officer structure your loan as in the “Southeast Style”. Or, if you prefer to have as few closing costs as possible and don’t mind slightly higher rates, ask for that type of set-up instead.
Either way, consider locking your rate as soon as possible. If rates keep rising, it won’t be long before they touch 6 percent.
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Mortgage rates are rising, up nearly 1 percent since mid-October. Tomorrow, rates could rise again.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the November jobs report at 8:30 A.M. ET Friday. With a stronger-than-expected reading, mortgage rates should continue their climb, harming home affordability across Georgia and nationwide.
And already, Wall Street is bracing for big results. Here’s why.
Wednesday, payroll processor ADP said that 98,000 private-sector jobs were created in November. The figure was a complete blowout reading as compared to analyst estimates, which had the results in the 50,000 range. But that wasn’t all. ADP re-measured and re-reported October’s gains, too. It found that 84,000 jobs were created — not the 43,000 on its original report from 30 days ago.
If jobs growth is the keystone to economic recovery, the ADP report suggests that recovery is already underway.
It’s bad news for rate shoppers. A faltering economy helped keep mortgage rates low. A recovering one should make rates rise. And, that’s exactly what happened Wednesday.
In response to the ADP report, conforming mortgage rates posted their third-worst day of the year. Rates climbed as much as 0.375 percent throughout the day as lenders scrambled to keep up with a deteriorating market.
At some banks, rates changed 4 times between the market’s open and close.
Tomorrow, analysts expect the government to report 146,000 jobs created in November. Mortgage markets and home affordability have a lot riding on the actual results. A lower-than-expected reading should lead mortgage rates lower. Anything else and mortgage rates should rise. Likely by a lot.
Therefore, if you’re shopping for a mortgage right now, or floating a loan that’s in-process, think about your personal risk tolerance and whether you want to gamble against rates moving higher. Once Friday morning’s report is released, it may be too late to lock something lower.
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The recent rise in mortgage rates was slowed this week after the government released its Retail Sales report for August.
Prior to Tuesday, mortgage rates had been spiking across North Georgia on the resurgent hope for U.S. economic recovery. The sentiment shift was rooted in reports including the Pending Home Sales Index and Initial Jobless Claims, both of which showed surprising strength last week.
August’s Retail Sales, though, after removing motor vehicles, auto parts and gasoline sales, failed to maintain the momentum. Its figures were actually in-line with expectations — it’s just that expectations weren’t all that high.
Wall Street now wonders whether the weak Back-to-School shopping season will trend forward into the holidays.
The doubt spells good news for mortgage rates and home affordability.
Because Retail Sales is tied to consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, a weak reading tends to drag down stock markets and pump up bonds, and when bonds are in demand, mortgage rates fall.
This is exactly what happened Tuesday. The soft Retail Sales data eased stock markets down, and generated new demand for mortgage bonds. This demand caused bond prices to rise, which, in turn, caused mortgage rates to fall.
Mortgage rates did not cut new lows this week, but they’re very, very close.
With mortgage rates at historical lows, it’s an excellent time to look at a refinance, or gauge what financing a new home would cost. Low rates like this can’t last forever.
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Want a lower mortgage rate on your upcoming Blairsville home buy? Think about moving up the closing date.
The reason is rooted in “rate locks”, a bank’s guarantee to honor a specific mortgage rate for a specific, finite period of time. Rate locks allow home buyers to reserve mortgage rates today even though their respective closings may be scheduled as far as a year into the future.
A rate lock is a contract. No matter what the “current market rate” is at the time of closing, the bank will honor the terms of the original rate lock.
It would be like making an agreement to buy Microsoft stock at a specific price 60 days from now. No matter what the price, you already know what you’re paying for it.
In this sense, rate locks are predictions about the future and, meanwhile, as we all know, the future can be a challenge to forecast. Lenders know this, too, of course, so it’s easy to understand why longer rate locks tend to be more expensive than shorter ones.
The longer the rate lock, the more risk to the bank.
To compensate for this “time risk”, therefore, lenders typically step-up pricing for rate lock guarantees as lock period lengthen.
- 15-day rate lock : The best of all pricing
- 30-day rate lock : 1/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
- 45-day rate lock : 1/4 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
- 60-day rate lock : 3/8 percent extra cost versus the 15-day rate lock
One percent of “extra cost” is defined as one percent of the borrowed amount.
Now, this incremental price chart is just a rough guideline; exact spreads vary from lender-to-lender. Overall, however, it’s fairly close.
That’s why it’s important to manage your closing date vis-a-vis your mortgage rate. Closing in 30 days versus 31 can save you an eighth-percent in closing costs. Assuming a loan size of $200,000, that’s $2,500 saved.
So, when negotiating a closing date on a contract, keep in mind the math of mortgage rate locks. The shorter its length, the more money you might save.
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When adjustable-rate mortgages are on the verge of adjusting, a common concern among homeowners is that their mortgage rates will adjust higher.
Well, this year, because of the math of how ARMs adjust, homeowners in Blairsville Georgia and around the country are seeing that mortgage rates on ARMs can sometimes adjust lower, too.
Adjusting conforming mortgages are adjusting to as low as 3 percent.
As a quick review, here’s the timeline for most conforming adjustable-rate mortgages:
- There’s a “starter period” in which the interest rate remains fixed. This can range from 1-10 years.
- There’s a rate change after the starter period. It’s called the “first adjustment”.
- Subsequent, annual adjustments follow until the loan “ends”. This is usually after Year 30.
The adjustments each year are based on a math formula that’s included in the contract with your lender. It’s surprisingly basic. Each year, your new, adjusted mortgage rate is equal to the sum of some constant — usually 2.25 percent — and some variable. The variable is most commonly equal to the 12-month LIBOR.
As a formula, the math looks like this:
(Adjusted Mortgage Rates) = (12-Month LIBOR) + (2.250 Percent)
LIBOR is an acronym standing for London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other — very similar to our Fed Funds Rate here in the United States. And also like our Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR has been low lately.
As a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.
In 2009, 5-year ARMs adjusted to 6 percent or higher. Today, ARMs are adjusting to 3.000%.
Based on the math, you may want to let your ARM adjust with the market year. Or, if you plan to keep your home long-term and have concerns about adjustments in 2011 and beyond, it may be a good time to open a new ARM. The same forces that are driving down LIBOR and helping to keep mortgage rates low overall, too.
Consider talking to your loan officer and making a plan. With mortgage rates as low as they’ve been in history, most homeowners have options. Just don’t wait too long. LIBOR — and mortgage rates in general — are known to change quickly.
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Mortgage rates are low right now but pinning them down this week could be a challenge. As Labor Day Weekend nears and Wall Streeters take their head-start on the holiday, trading volume will fall, which will cause mortgage rates in North Georgia to get jumpy.
As mortgage rates change, so does the long-term cost of owning a home. Every 1/8 percent adjustment changes a household budget.
Meanwhile, the relationship between “vacation days” and mortgage rate volatility is an interesting one; based more in scarcity than market fundamentals.
Rates tend to get volatile near holidays because of two inter-related facts:
- Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds
- Mortgage-backed bonds can’t trade without a buyer and a seller at a specific price
So, as the week progresses and more traders leave for their respective “extended” 3-day weekends, there’s fewer buyers and sellers left on Wall Street to connect for a trade. As a result, mortgage bond prices move across larger gaps than on a “normal” day which, in turn, translates into faster, larger changes in rates.
This phenomenon can be exaggerated during periods of economic uncertainty — like what we’re in now — and, furthermore, there’s a bevy of important data set for release this week including the FOMC Minutes, inflation data, and August jobs figures.
In other words, rates would have been volatile without the vacation week. The presence of Labor Day just piles on.
Mortgage rates may rise this week, or they may fall. Either way, if you have a chance to lock something favorable and within your budget, consider doing it. Rates are at all-time lows and likely won’t last.
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The number of home resales plunged by 1.4 million units in July, according to the National Association of Realtors® Existing Home Sales report.
It’s a drop of 27 percent from June; single-family home resales are at the report’s lowest levels since May 1999.
Furthermore, because of the sharp drop in sales volume, home inventories are spiking.
Homes for sale nationwide fell just short of 4 million units in July and, at the current sales paces, it would take 12.5 months for the existing inventory to be absorbed.
Home supply was just 8.9 months in June.
For home sellers in Hiawassee, Blairsville and Blue Ridge, the Existing Home Sales report is a bit of bad news. North Georgia Mountain Home Buyers are still waiting for the “bottom.” Fewer sales and larger inventories put negotiation leverage in the hands of the buyers which, in turn, creates downward pressure on home prices. It may also increase time-on-market.
For home buyers, however, the data is decidedly welcome. After a stimulus-driven spring buying season that favored sellers, the summer and early-fall market seem to favor buyers. More choices and more leverage is a positive.
It helps that home affordability is up, too.
Although there’s reports that home values are rising, their modest gains are more than countered by the ongoing rally in mortgage rates. Freddie Mac says that 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history and, at today’s rates, every one-eighth drop in mortgage rates roughly offsets a 1.5% increase to home price.
Mortgage rates are down 0.75 percent since mid-April.
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For the second time this year, the FHA is modifying mortgage insurance.
Beginning with FHA case numbers issued on or after October 4, 2010, the FHA is changing its upfront and annual mortgage insurance premium structure.
Under the new terms, assuming a 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage with at least 5 percent equity:
- Upfront MIP drops to 1.000% of the amount borrowed from 2.250%
- Annual MIP increases to 0.850% of the amount borrowed from 0.500%
For homeowners in Blue Ridge, Blairsville and everywhere else , this switch in MIP decreases the upfront cost of an FHA-insured mortgage, but increases the loan’s long-term costs.
Using a $100,000 mortgage as an example, upfront MIP falls to $1,000 from $2,250; monthly MIP jumps to $70.83 from $41.67. The FHA expects the change will yield an additional $300 million in premiums monthly.
The update is a huge win for the FHA whose reserve funds are self-proclaimed to be “perilously low”. The extra monies should help recapitalize and stabilize the government group.
The FHA is on pace to back 1.7 million loans this year.
For the majority of refinancing FHA homeowners and home buyers, the MIP change is neither good nor bad — the borrowing landscape will just looks a bit different. Yes, loans will cost more to carry each month, but also they’ll be less expensive to procure. It’s a trade-off and you can apply math formulas to solve for the best time to apply FHA.
It may be wise to get your FHA case number before October 4, for example, depending on your time frame in the home and the expected life of the mortgage. Or, it may be better to wait until after October 4 to apply.
If you’re unsure of how the new FHA mortgage premiums will impact your mortgage, be sure to call or email your loan officer for help.
NOTE : The FHA originally announced an implementation date of September 7. It was subsequently amended to October 4, 2010.
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Mortgage rates have been falling since April but that momentum could reverse tomorrow.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July jobs report at 8:30 A.M. ET Friday. With a stronger-than-expected reading, mortgage rates should rise, harming home affordability in North Georgia. Jobs are a keystone in economic growth and growth is tied to rates.
Earlier this year, job growth went positive and reached as far north as 431,000 jobs created in May. That figure slipped negative last month, however, as the temporary, decennial census workers left the workforce.
Jobs matter to the U.S. economy. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans spend less on everyday goods and services, and are more likely to stop payments on a mortgage. These effects retard the economy, spur foreclosures, and harm home values.
The reverse is also true. More workers means more disposable dollars and, in theory, a stronger economy.
Analysts expect that a net 65,000 jobs were lost in July. Wall Street — and Main Street — have a big interest in those results.
Poor jobs data would likely result in a stock market sell-off which would, in turn, boost the value of government-backed mortgage bonds. This is because bonds tend to perform well when the economy is sagging and higher bond prices mean lower mortgage rates.
Strong jobs data, however, would likely push stock markets up and bond markets down. This would cause mortgage rates to rise. The stronger the employment figures, the higher mortgage rates should go.
So, if you’re happy with where mortgage rates are today and you’re concerned about what the jobs report may do to them tomorrow, consider talking to your loan officer about locking your rate as soon as possible.
Once the jobs report is released, it may be too late.
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No doubt you’ve heard that mortgage rates are low. They’re lower than they’ve ever been in history. The news is everywhere.
Just check out some of these headlines from the last 24 hours:
- Mortgage rates set new lows for the 6th straight week (Reuters)
- Mortgage rates fall again; 30-year fixed at 4.54% (Wall Street Journal)
- Mortgage rates hit another low : 4.54% (NPR)
Fixed mortgage rates are now down more than 1/2 percent from the start of the year, and 3/4 percent from just 1 year ago. The drop has dramatically improved home affordability for home buyers in Blue Ridge and Blairsville while creating refinance opportunities for existing homeowners.
From a payment perspective, a conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now cheaper by $41.94 per month per $100,000 borrowed versus July 2009.
A homeowner with a $300,000 mortgage, therefore, is saving $45,295.20 over 30 years.
Low mortgage rates rarely last long and rates appear to have troughed. After a big downhill between April and July, they’re now flat. This could mean rates have finished falling, or that they’re gearing up for another drop lower. Either way, if you haven’t talked to your real estate agent about home affordability, or your loan officer about refinancing, it may be time to make that call.
If today’s market marks the end of low rates, rates are expected to rise quickly.
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