Fed Minutes Help Push Mortgage Rates To 4-Month High
The Federal Reserve released its November 2-3, 2010 meeting minutes Tuesday afternoon. Mortgage rates in Georgia have been on the move since.
The Fed Minutes is a comprehensive review of Federal Open Market Committee meetings; a detailed look at the debates and discussions that shape our country’s monetary policy. The report is published 3 weeks to-the-day after the FOMC adjourns.
Fed Minutes add depth to the briefer, more well-known “statement” to the markets which is issued upon adjournment. As a comparison:
- The November 3 statement contained 497 words
- The November 3 meeting minutes contained 6,623 words
If the Fed Statement is the executive summary, the Fed Minutes is the novel. And, the extra words matter.
When the Federal Reserve publishes its minutes, it gives clues about the groups next policy-making steps. For example, in November’s minutes, it’s revealed that the Fed discussed setting inflation targets for the economy; holding occasional policy briefings for the press; and, working to set yields on instruments such as the 10-year Treasury note.
In addition, the Federal Reserve acknowledged a video conference hosted October 15, the second such “unannounced” meeting of the year. The other was May 9, 2010.
Bond markets have not taken kindly to the Fed Minutes. The minutes show a propensity toward Fed “action”, most of which markets believe to be inflationary. Inflation leads to higher mortgage rates and that’s exactly what we’ve seen.
As compared to Tuesday morning, mortgage applicants in Blairsville are finding conforming and FHA mortgage rates to be higher by as much as 0.375 percent. In “real life” terms, assuming a 30-year term, that’s an extra $264 in annual mortgage payments per $100,000 borrowed.
If you’re still rate shopping, consider getting locked today. As a result of the recent shift, mortgage rates are now at a 4-month high.
Higher FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums Start October 4, 2010
For the second time this year, the FHA is modifying mortgage insurance.
Beginning with FHA case numbers issued on or after October 4, 2010, the FHA is changing its upfront and annual mortgage insurance premium structure.
Under the new terms, assuming a 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage with at least 5 percent equity:
- Upfront MIP drops to 1.000% of the amount borrowed from 2.250%
- Annual MIP increases to 0.850% of the amount borrowed from 0.500%
For homeowners in Blue Ridge, Blairsville and everywhere else , this switch in MIP decreases the upfront cost of an FHA-insured mortgage, but increases the loan’s long-term costs.
Using a $100,000 mortgage as an example, upfront MIP falls to $1,000 from $2,250; monthly MIP jumps to $70.83 from $41.67. The FHA expects the change will yield an additional $300 million in premiums monthly.
The update is a huge win for the FHA whose reserve funds are self-proclaimed to be “perilously low”. The extra monies should help recapitalize and stabilize the government group.
The FHA is on pace to back 1.7 million loans this year.
For the majority of refinancing FHA homeowners and home buyers, the MIP change is neither good nor bad — the borrowing landscape will just looks a bit different. Yes, loans will cost more to carry each month, but also they’ll be less expensive to procure. It’s a trade-off and you can apply math formulas to solve for the best time to apply FHA.
It may be wise to get your FHA case number before October 4, for example, depending on your time frame in the home and the expected life of the mortgage. Or, it may be better to wait until after October 4 to apply.
If you’re unsure of how the new FHA mortgage premiums will impact your mortgage, be sure to call or email your loan officer for help.
NOTE : The FHA originally announced an implementation date of September 7. It was subsequently amended to October 4, 2010.
FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums Approved To Triple In Cost
Starting sometime later this year, the monthly cost to carry an FHA-insured mortgage is expected to rise.
In a near-unanimous vote, the House of Representatives gave the FHA power to raise the monthly mortgage insurance premiums it charges to its borrowers.
Currently, monthly mortgage insurance premiums are 0.55% of the unpaid loan balance, divided by 12. The recently approved Federal Housing Administration Reform Act provides for an increase in monthly premium of up to 1.55 percent, among other details of the bill.
Despite the ability to charge 1.55 percent, FHA officials say an increase to 0.90 percent would be sufficient to self-insure its loans.
In everyday terms, assuming a $200,000 mortgage, the math to a homeowner looks as follows:
- Current Premium (0.55%) : $91.67 monthly mortgage insurance premium
- Expected Increase (0.90%) : $150.00 monthly mortgage insurance premium
- Maximum Increase (1.55%) : $258.33 monthly mortgage insurance premium
A increase in monthly mortgage insurance premiums will reduce home affordability for home buyers in Blue Ridge and Blairsville, and will put a strain on household budgets.
The news isn’t all terrible, however.
Because higher monthly insurance premiums are expected to pad the FHA coffers sufficiently, the FHA has said it plans to reduce its upfront mortgage insurance premium paid at closing from 2.25 percent down to 1.000 percent.
On the same $200,000 mortgage, a move like that would reduces closing costs by $2,500.
The bill awaits companion legislation in Senate and final approval into law, but considering the House’s lopsided vote Thursday, it could happen rather quickly. If you’re planning to buy or refinance a home using an FHA mortgage, you may find that waiting to take the next step could be a costly one, long-term.
The FHA insured close to a quarter of all mortgages made in the first three months of 2010.
1 In 8 Banks Tightened Prime Mortgage Standards
The Federal Reserve says that financial markets “remain supportive of economic growth“. Residential mortgage guidelines, however, continue to tighten.
If you’ve applied for a home loan recently, you probably felt it; extra scrutiny on income, assets and credit scores, among other things. The hard proof of the changes, however, can be found in the Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey of its member banks.
Every 3 months, the Federal Reserve asks senior bank loan officers around the country whether their respective banks’ “prime” residential mortgage guidelines tightened since the last survey.
For the period January-March 2010, 1 in 8 banks surveyed toughened their qualification standards.
Only 4% loosened them.
When we account for the Fed’s survey in conjunction with new underwriting standards from Fannie Mae and FHA, it’s clear that getting approved for a mortgage in 2010 is more difficult than at any time in recent memory.
Today’s homeowners and home buyers in Blairsville have taller hurdles to leap:
- Minimum FICO scores are higher
- Down payment/equity requirements are larger
- Debt-to-Income thresholds are smaller
In other words, mortgage rates may stay low throughout 2010, but that won’t matter to homeowners failing to meet the new, minimum eligibility standards as set forth by the lenders.
If you’re among the many people wondering if now is the right time to buy or refinance a home, remember that — along with a probable increase in mortgage rates — mortgage approvals are getting more scarce.
The best home price or mortgage rate in the world won’t matter if you’re ineligible for financing.
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How Iceland's Volcanoes Are Helping Mortgage Rates Fall
Mortgage rates and home affordability have improved lately, thanks to an unlikely ally — Mother Nature.
In the 7 days since Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull erupted, ash clouds have grounded planes, disrupted businesses, and stranded exports in warehouses worldwide.
It’s a drag on commerce that’s spilled over onto Wall Street. As experts debate the potential for future seismic activity, traders are taking some of their investment risk off the table.
In trading circles, it’s called “safe haven buying”. When the market gets cloudy, investors often move their cash into relatively safe assets. This includes government-backed securities — mortgage-bonds among them.
Demand for bonds rise, pushing up prices and driving down rates.
Conforming and FHA mortgage rates in the North Georgia Mountains touched a 3-week low earlier this week.
Volcanic eruptions and like natural disasters remind us: mortgage rates change for all sorts of reasons. Some we can predict, most we cannot. There’s literally thousands of influences on the U.S. mortgage market.
If you’ve been shopping for a home or floating a mortgage rate, luck’s been on your side. However, as ash clouds dissipate and business resumes worldwide, investors will regain their collective appetite for risk and safe haven buying will reach its natural end.
When that happens, mortgage rates will rise.
Therefore, use the seismic uncertainty to your advantage. Consider locking your mortgage rate sooner rather than later — while rates are still low.
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