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New Homes Sales Gain in June Could Be Relative
After a down month in May, the sales of newly-built homes appears back on track.
As published by the Census Bureau, June’s New Home Sales report showed:
- A 24 percent sales volume increase from the month prior
- A 2-month drop in the supply of newly-built home
There are now just 210,000 new homes for sale nationwide.
June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest. This is for several reasons.
First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.
In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.
Second, although much improved, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months. The last year has averaged 7.7 months.
For buyers of new homes in Blairsville and Blue Ridge, this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive. It’s the main reason why home builder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.
Data compiled through the Northeast Georgia MLS shows the following:
New Homes For Sale In The North Georgia Mountains
- Towns County (Hiawassee, GA.) – 37
- Union County (Blairsville, GA.) – 50
- Fannin County (Blue Ridge, GA.) – 98
- Gilmer County (Ellijay, GA.) – 56
New Homes Sold Year-To-Date In The North Georgia Mountains
- Towns County (Hiawassee, GA.) – 11
- Union County (Blairsville, GA.) – 23
- Fannin County (Blue Ridge, GA.) – 28
- Gilmer County (Ellijay, GA.) – 18
Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.
If I can assist you with your North Georgia Mountain Real Estate needs, please Contact Me, or pick up the phone and give me a call at 706.994.8686. I sure would appreciate the opportunity to help you find your piece of Heaven here in our Mountains!
Home Price Index On The Rise in March 2010
Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.
We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets such as The North Georgia Mountains as well as citywide markets like Ellijay, Blue Ridge, and Blairsville too.
Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.
For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:
- Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
- Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
- Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%
Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.
Real estate is a local phenomenon that can’t be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can’t be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.
The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.
In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today’s market — it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.
So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports. As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us — and eventually influences real estate.
Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.
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New Homes Sales Not As Strong As The News Would Have You Believe
The sales of newly-built homes soared in March. Even more than what was expected. But the news may not be as glowing as what the media is telling us.
Take a look at the headlines from last Friday:
- Sales of new homes rocketed up 27 percent in March (WaPo)
- New-home sales rise fastest in 47 years (CNNMoney)
- Sales of New Homes Climb by Most Since 1963 (Business Week)
None of these statements is false, per se, but each is somewhat misleading. The biggest reason why March’s New Home Sales was even able to rise 27 percent is because data from the month before it — February — was the worst in New Home Sales history.
In February, new homes sold posted its lowest level in recorded history.
A better comparison would be against March a year earlier; or October 2009, the month before the home buyer tax credit’s initial expiration date.
Against both of those time periods, March 2010 fared well.
Home buyers – first-timers and repeats alike — went under contract last month, taking advantage of the soon-to-expire federal home buyer tax credit program. The credit gives up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat ones.
Buyers must be in mutual contract on or before April 30, 2010 to be eligible for the credit, and must closed on or before June 30, 2010.
The New Home Sales data included other strong housing data, too. The current supply of new homes nationwide is at a multi-year low. Along with stronger home demand, this should push Ellijay, Blue Ridge and Blairsville home prices higher throughout the coming months.
It’s no wonder builders are bullish on the economy.
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Fight Your Property Tax Bill Without A Lawyer
More than 60 percent of U.S. homes are “over-assessed”, says an industry trade group. Homeowners in Blue Ridge, Blairsville, Ellijay and Hiawassee pay more in property taxes than they otherwise should have to. You might be one of them.
Have you considered fighting your real estate tax bill?
In this 4-minute piece from The Today Show, you’ll learn:
- When to file your tax bill dispute for the best chances of winning
- How to pull your “property card” and check for tax bill-raising errors
- What to do if the taxing authority turns down your request
Most importantly, you’ll learn that don’t need to hire an attorney to fight your tax bill. You just need to be prepared. Do your research and make your case. It’s estimated that nearly half of all contesting homeowners are successful.
