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Consumer spending continues to rise nationwide, fueled by jobs growth and a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers int he North Georgia Mountains, it may also lead to higher mortgage rates later this week.
Thursday morning, the Census Bureau will release its U.S. Retail Sales data for December. The report is expected to show an 18th consecutive monthly increase, with analysts projecting sales volume higher by 0.4 percent from November. This would be double the increase from last month, which saw a 0.2 percent increase in Retail Sales.
The Retail Sales report tallies receipts collected by retail and food-service stores nationwide. When the sum of these receipts rise, it puts pressure on mortgage rates to do the same. The connection is straight-forward.
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The American Consumer is alive and well, it seems.
Friday morning, the Census Bureau will release its Retail Sales figures for September. The report is expected to show an increase in gross receipts for the 15th straight month with analysts predicting a 0.6 percent increase from August.
The projected increase represents the largest jump in Retail Sales in six months and would likely lead mortgage rates higher for buyers in the North Georgia Mountains and nationwide.
The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates is fairly straight-forward. Retail Sales are the majority component of “consumer spending” and consumer spending represents the majority of the U.S. economy — up to 70 percent, by some estimates.
And, as the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.
10 months ago, mortgage rates shot forward to start the year. This is because expectations were high for a strong economic rebound. Conforming and FHA rates crossed 5 percent at the time and were headed toward six.
By mid-April, though, it was clear that economic data was falling short of predictions. As a result, mortgage rates declined, kicking off the 2011 Refi Boom. Then, by August, on ongoing economic softness, mortgage rates in Georgia fell further, making new all-time lows.
Expectations for a recovery have returned. Rates are now rising.
Last week’s strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy and investors have been voting with their dollars. Mortgage rates are now up 7 consecutive days and Friday’s Retail Sales report could cement the trend.
If you’re shopping mortgage rates today, there’s risk in “floating”. You may want to lock your rate before Friday’s Retail Sales report drives rates even higher.
The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.
Related articles
- Jobs Report Could Cause Mortgage Rates To Rise (thefrontporchview.com)
- A Mortgage Rate Strategy Ahead Of Friday’s Jobs Report (thefrontporchview.com)
- Freddie Mac’s Mortgage Rates Drop Below 4% (thefrontporchview.com)
- Mortgage Rates Don’t Move! (thefrontporchview.com)
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The American Consumer will not be deterred.
Despite worsening jobless figures and an increase in the Cost of Living, Retail Sales are climbing. In June, for the 12th straight month, retail receipts rose, excluding cars and auto parts.
Analysts expected no change from May. Instead, receipts topped $321 billion — an all-time record.
For Home Buyers and would-be refinancers in Blairsville and Blue Ridge Georgia, this is a bit of unwelcome news. Mortgage rates are rising in the wake of the Retail Sales data release.
This is because Retail Sales account for roughly half of consumer spending, and nearly one-third of the economy overall. A rise in Retail Sales, therefore, suggests stronger growth ahead. Here’s how it happens.
As consumers spend more money, businesses sell more product. So, to accommodate burgeoning demand, business hire additional employees, and are forced to make additional capital expenditures as well. This rise in spending prompts other businesses to hire and spend; to meet their own respective demand surges. There’s a chain reaction-like effect. Then, with businesses carrying larger payrolls and bigger staffs, federal, state and local governments realize bigger tax bases and can fund new and existing projects. This, too, leads to hiring and the cycle repeats.
A weak economic outlook dragged down mortgage rates last week. This week’s Retail Sales data reversed that flow. Mortgage rates are higher by 1/8 percent — roughly $8 per $100,000 borrowed. Retail Sales are up 8 percent from a year ago.
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The jobs market is recovering slower than expected, and so is housing. But neither condition has slowed U.S. consumers.
According to the Census Bureau, Retail Sales rose for the 11th straight month in May. Excluding cars and auto parts, sales receipts climbed to $322 billion last month. It’s an all-time high and another example of the U.S. economy’s resiliency.
Wall Street didn’t expect such results. As a result, mortgage rates worsened Tuesday.
By a lot.
The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates can be fairly tight in a recovering economy. Retail Sales accounts for almost half of all U.S. consumer spending, and nearly one-third of the economy overall. The May report, therefore, showed the economy may be on more solid footing than economists expect.
Plus, lately, as the economy goes, so do mortgage rates in Blue Ridge and Blairsville and nationwide.
When the economy has shown signs of life, mortgage rates have increased. When the economy has shown signs of a slowdown, mortgage rates have dropped.
It’s why mortgage markets reacted the way they did Tuesday; May’s Retail Sales data was strong. The resultant surge in conforming mortgage rates — from market open to market close — turned into one of the year’s fiercest, raising average mortgage rates well off their 7-month lows established earlier this week.
At today’s rates, each 0.125 percent change in rates yields a payment difference of $7.50 per $100,000 borrowed. Yesterday, some product rates rose by as much as 0.250 percent. It put a dent in home affordability and household budgets.
With Retail Sales are up 8 percent from last year, therefore, and showing few signs of a slowdown, today may be a prudent date to lock a rate with your lender. As the economy continues to grow, rates are expected to rise.
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If consumer spending is a keystone element in the U.S. economic recovery, a full-on rebound is likely underway.
Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its national January Retail Sales figures and for the seventh straight month, the data surpassed expectations. Last month’s retail figures climbed 0.3 percent as total sales receipts reached an all-time high.
It’s good news for the economy which is scratching back after a prolonged recession, but decidedly bad news for people in want of a mortgage across the state of Georgia. This includes home buyers for vacation homes for sale, and would-be refinancers.
Because consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy, Retail Sales growth means more economic growth and that draws Wall Street’s dollars toward riskier investments, including equities, at the expense of safer investments such as mortgage-backed bonds.
On the heels of the Retail Sales report’s release, bond prices are falling this morning. As a consequence, mortgage rates are rising. It’s the same pattern we’ve seen since mid-November — “good news” about the economy sparks a stock market frenzy, causing mortgage bonds to rise.
A sampling of other recent good-for-the-economy stories include:
- Corporate earnings are rising quickly (Marketwatch)
- Existing Home Sales up 12% month-over-month (CNN Money)
- The Fed says the economy looks “brighter” (Bloomberg)
The days of 4 percent, 30-year fixed rate mortgages are over. 5 percent is the new market benchmark. Unless the economy keeps showing strength. Then, that number may rise to 6 percent.
If you’re thinking of buying a home for sale in Ga or refinancing a home, consider how rising rates will hit your budget. You may want to take that next step sooner than you had planned — if only to protect your monthly payments.
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Consumers keep spending, the economy keeps growing.
Mortgage rates are easing lower this morning on just-released, slightly worse-than-expected Retail Sales data from December 2010.
Excluding motor vehicles and auto parts, December’s sales receipts were $1.5 billion higher from November. Analysts had expected a number north of $2 billion.
Despite falling short of estimates, however, December’s reading is the highest in Retail Sales history, surpassing the previous record set in July 2008 during the recession. In addition, December’s strong numbers helped 2010’s year-over-year numbers go positive for the first time in 3 years.
Although the data is a mixed bag for Wall Street, home affordability in the North Georgia Mountains is improving today.
The link between Retail Sales and home affordability may not be up-front obvious, but in a post-recession economy like ours, it’s often tight. Retail Sales is another name for “consumer spending” and consumer spending makes up more that 70% of the U.S. economy.
As spending grows, the economy tends to, too.
Investors recognize this and start chasing “risk”. It becomes a boost for the stock market, but those gains are made at the expense of “safe” asset classes which include mortgage-backed bonds. Mortgage-backed bonds are the basis for conforming and FHA mortgage rates so, as bond markets sell off, asset prices fall and rates move up.
Thankfully, rate shoppers will avoid that scenario today — at least for today. December’s Retail Sales results are a factor in the bond market’s early-day improvement. Conforming and FHA mortgage rates across the state of Georgia should be lower today.
Despite the good news, if you’re shopping for a mortgage, consider locking your rate as soon as possible. Mortgage rates are coming off a 2-week rally and look poised to reverse appear — especially with a full docket of data due for next week. As mortgage rates rise, purchasing power falls.
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Consumer Sentiment has been on the rise since last February and it’s something to which Blairsville Home Buyers should pay attention.
The affordability of your next home may hinge on consumer confidence.
As the economy recovers from a near-the-brink recession, many of the elements of a full recovery are in place. Business investment is returning, household spending is expanding, and financial systems are gaining strength.
Consumer confidence is at a 2-year high.
What’s missing from the recovery, though, is jobs growth. Another net 20,000 jobs were lost in January. Data like that hinders economic growth.
That said, twenty-thousand jobs lost is a much better figure than the several hundred thousand that were shed per month throughout early-2009, but it’s still a net negative number. Not only does household income drop when Americans lose jobs but so does the average American’s confidence in his or her own economic future.
This is one reason why jobs growth is so closely watched by Wall Street — jobs are linked to higher confidence levels which, in turn, is believed to spur consumer spending.
Consumer spending represents 70% of the U.S. economy.
As confidence rises, it could be good news for the economy, but bad news for home buyers. More spending expands the economy and, all things equal, that leads mortgage rates higher.
Same for home prices. More confidence means more buyers which, in turn, squeezes the supply-and-demand curve in favor of sellers.
Later this morning, the University of Michigan will release its February Consumer Sentiment survey. If the reading is higher-than-expected, prepare for mortgage rates to rise and home affordability to worsen.
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On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior. The data is more commonly known as “the jobs report” and it swings a big stick on Wall Street.
Especially now — many analysts believe job growth is tightly linked to the future of the U.S. economy.
Therefore, when January’s jobs report hits the wires at 8:45 AM ET tomorrow, Blue Ridge home buyers would do well to pay attention. A net job reading that is much higher (or lower) than Wall Street’s expectations can make a serious change in home affordability.
Wall Street expects that the economy added 13,000 jobs last month. It would mark the second time in 3 months that the jobs report showed a net monthly gain.
In November 2008, the economy added 4,000.
Jobs matter to the economy for a lot of reasons, but one of the biggest is that when Americans are working, Americans are buying and consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy.
Job growth spurs the economy and draws money to the stock market. Unfortunately for rate shoppers, that kind of stock market growth happens at the expense of the bond market which is where mortgage rates are made.
Good jobs data usually means higher mortgage rates.
Also, job growth can lead to higher home prices. This is because working homeowners are less likely to default on a mortgage versus non-working homeowners. In this way, job growth helps hold foreclosures to a minimum which, in turn, suppresses the housing supply.
Less supply means higher prices for home buyers.
Mortgage rates are idling this morning in advance of tomorrow’s data. If you’re shopping for a mortgage rate, the prudent play may be to lock your rate before the jobs data is released. A jobs figure that’s higher than the 13,000 expected could cause rate to rise sharply.
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