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Americans are getting back to work. Well……sort of.
This morning, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Non-Farm Payrolls report for January 2011. More commonly called “the jobs report”, the government’s data showed a large decrease in the number of working Americans as compared to December, but a sizable drop in the Unemployment Rate.
The job growth figures were much lower than consensus estimates:
- Expected job growth in January : +148,000 jobs
- Actual job growth in January : +36,000 jobs
January’s Unemployment Rate surprised analysts, too, but not in a bad way, falling from 9.4 percent in December to 9.0 percent last month. This is the nation’s lowest Unemployment Rate in nearly 2 years.
Today’s jobs report is rough news for Home Buyers and rate shoppers in Blue Ridge and Blairsville. Shortly after the report’s release, Wall Street is attributing the low jobs number to “bad weather” and is choosing to focus on the strong Unemployment Rate instead.
U.S. stock futures are now rising ahead of open, an increase that will come at the expense of the bond markets. Indeed, mortgage-backed bonds are losing this morning already.
Conforming mortgage rates are expected to start the day at least +0.125% from Thursday’s close and, if momentum continues, could tack on an additional +0.125% before today’s closing bell.
The government’s report is an excellent example of how important jobs data can be to home affordability — especially in a recovering economy.
The economy shed 7 million jobs between 2008 and 2009 and fewer than 1 million of those were recovered in 2010. It’s a data point Wall Street watches closely because more working Americans means more consumer spending, and more consumer spending means more economic growth. Consumers account for 70% of the U.S. economy, after all.
More workers also means more taxes paid to federal, state and local government, and, in theory, fewer loan charge-offs from banks. These, too, keep the economic engine moving forward, spurring more spending and job growth.
If you have not yet locked a mortgage rate, consider locking one today. On the heels of today’s jobs data, 30-year fixed rates will scratch at their highest levels of the year.
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Mortgage rates are rising, up nearly 1 percent since mid-October. Tomorrow, rates could rise again.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the November jobs report at 8:30 A.M. ET Friday. With a stronger-than-expected reading, mortgage rates should continue their climb, harming home affordability across Georgia and nationwide.
And already, Wall Street is bracing for big results. Here’s why.
Wednesday, payroll processor ADP said that 98,000 private-sector jobs were created in November. The figure was a complete blowout reading as compared to analyst estimates, which had the results in the 50,000 range. But that wasn’t all. ADP re-measured and re-reported October’s gains, too. It found that 84,000 jobs were created — not the 43,000 on its original report from 30 days ago.
If jobs growth is the keystone to economic recovery, the ADP report suggests that recovery is already underway.
It’s bad news for rate shoppers. A faltering economy helped keep mortgage rates low. A recovering one should make rates rise. And, that’s exactly what happened Wednesday.
In response to the ADP report, conforming mortgage rates posted their third-worst day of the year. Rates climbed as much as 0.375 percent throughout the day as lenders scrambled to keep up with a deteriorating market.
At some banks, rates changed 4 times between the market’s open and close.
Tomorrow, analysts expect the government to report 146,000 jobs created in November. Mortgage markets and home affordability have a lot riding on the actual results. A lower-than-expected reading should lead mortgage rates lower. Anything else and mortgage rates should rise. Likely by a lot.
Therefore, if you’re shopping for a mortgage right now, or floating a loan that’s in-process, think about your personal risk tolerance and whether you want to gamble against rates moving higher. Once Friday morning’s report is released, it may be too late to lock something lower.
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The 1937 opening of the Fresno Municipal Sanitary Landfill marked the birth of the modern landfill.
Today, transporting and burying garbage is a $50 billion annual business with an estimated 3,000 landfills in operation across the country, plus an additional 10,000 municipal “dump” sites.
A recent article by Forbes detailed the nation’s 10 largest landfills, collectively profiling the structures as technology-driven, environmentally-responsible, and mostly odor-free.
The 10 largest landfills, according to Forbes:
- Apex Regional (Las Vegas, NV)
- Puente Hills (Whittier, CA)
- Newton County Landfill Partnership (Brook, IN)
- Okeechobee (Okeechobee, FL)
- Atlantic Waste (Waverly, VA)
- Rumpke Sanitary (Colerain Township, OH)
- Pine Tree Acres (Lenox, MI)
- El Sobrante (Corona, CA)
- Veolia Orchard Hills (Davis Junction, IL)
- Denver Arapahoe Disposal Site (Aurora, CO)
Landfill sites are often “hidden”; blended in to their surroundings. Because of this, when you’re shopping for a home, you may not know just how close you’re buying to an landfill or dump.
Therefore, be sure to ask your real estate agent about it, and consider following up with the county to learn what materials can be safely disposed at the local site.
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The recent rise in mortgage rates was slowed this week after the government released its Retail Sales report for August.
Prior to Tuesday, mortgage rates had been spiking across North Georgia on the resurgent hope for U.S. economic recovery. The sentiment shift was rooted in reports including the Pending Home Sales Index and Initial Jobless Claims, both of which showed surprising strength last week.
August’s Retail Sales, though, after removing motor vehicles, auto parts and gasoline sales, failed to maintain the momentum. Its figures were actually in-line with expectations — it’s just that expectations weren’t all that high.
Wall Street now wonders whether the weak Back-to-School shopping season will trend forward into the holidays.
The doubt spells good news for mortgage rates and home affordability.
Because Retail Sales is tied to consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, a weak reading tends to drag down stock markets and pump up bonds, and when bonds are in demand, mortgage rates fall.
This is exactly what happened Tuesday. The soft Retail Sales data eased stock markets down, and generated new demand for mortgage bonds. This demand caused bond prices to rise, which, in turn, caused mortgage rates to fall.
Mortgage rates did not cut new lows this week, but they’re very, very close.
With mortgage rates at historical lows, it’s an excellent time to look at a refinance, or gauge what financing a new home would cost. Low rates like this can’t last forever.
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When adjustable-rate mortgages are on the verge of adjusting, a common concern among homeowners is that their mortgage rates will adjust higher.
Well, this year, because of the math of how ARMs adjust, homeowners in Blairsville Georgia and around the country are seeing that mortgage rates on ARMs can sometimes adjust lower, too.
Adjusting conforming mortgages are adjusting to as low as 3 percent.
As a quick review, here’s the timeline for most conforming adjustable-rate mortgages:
- There’s a “starter period” in which the interest rate remains fixed. This can range from 1-10 years.
- There’s a rate change after the starter period. It’s called the “first adjustment”.
- Subsequent, annual adjustments follow until the loan “ends”. This is usually after Year 30.
The adjustments each year are based on a math formula that’s included in the contract with your lender. It’s surprisingly basic. Each year, your new, adjusted mortgage rate is equal to the sum of some constant — usually 2.25 percent — and some variable. The variable is most commonly equal to the 12-month LIBOR.
As a formula, the math looks like this:
(Adjusted Mortgage Rates) = (12-Month LIBOR) + (2.250 Percent)
LIBOR is an acronym standing for London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s an interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other — very similar to our Fed Funds Rate here in the United States. And also like our Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR has been low lately.
As a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.
In 2009, 5-year ARMs adjusted to 6 percent or higher. Today, ARMs are adjusting to 3.000%.
Based on the math, you may want to let your ARM adjust with the market year. Or, if you plan to keep your home long-term and have concerns about adjustments in 2011 and beyond, it may be a good time to open a new ARM. The same forces that are driving down LIBOR and helping to keep mortgage rates low overall, too.
Consider talking to your loan officer and making a plan. With mortgage rates as low as they’ve been in history, most homeowners have options. Just don’t wait too long. LIBOR — and mortgage rates in general — are known to change quickly.
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The Federal Reserve adjourns from a scheduled, 2-day meeting today. It’s one of 8 scheduled Fed meetings for 2010.
Upon adjournment, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co. will release a formal statement to the market. In it, the Fed is expected to announce “no change” in the Fed Funds Rate.
The Fed Funds Rate is currently in a target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The Fed Funds Rate is an inter-bank lending rate. It’s also the basis for Prime Rate, a consumer interest rate on which credit card payments are based, among other consumer loans. Prime Rate is equal to the Fed Funds Rate + 3 percent. Credit card rates, therefore, will likely stay flat today, too.
Mortgage rates, however, should change. Possibly by a lot. The 30-year fixed mortgage does not correlate with the Fed Funds Rate (as shown in the chart at right).
The reason mortgage rates will change today is because, in its statement, the Federal Reserve will highlight various parts of the economy, identifying strengths, weaknesses and probable threats to growth.
These observations influence investors with a stake in bond markets and future returns and, with Wall Street on edge right now — unsure of whether recent economic growth is a longer-term trend or a short-lived blip – mortgage rates could shoot higher or they could drop, depending on how traders interpret the Fed.
It’s a difficult time to be shopping mortgages in North Georgia.
Further complicating matters is Greece’s recent debt downgrade to junk status. A small contagion fear is budding worldwide and, as a result, the flight-to-quality has picked up steam. Mortgage rates are down because of it but could reverse higher at any moment.
Therefore, if you’re actively shopping for a mortgage today, it may be prudent to lock your rate ahead of the Fed’s announcement and any major market reversal. Mortgage rates may fall today, but there’s very little room for them to fall. This is, however, a lot of room for them to rise.
The Fed adjourns at 2:15 PM ET. Call your loan officer to lock your rate.
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Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.
According to the Commerce Department’s report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.
This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.
Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true. Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month. However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:
1. Single-Family Housing Starts
2. 2-4 Unit Housing Starts
3. “Apartment Building” Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)
The press tends to lump all 3 together but that’s not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers.
2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too. Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country’s housing stock.
Single-family housing starts are up 32 percent over the last 12 months.
Meanwhile, the pace of new buyers has not kept up with the pace of new housing stock. Therefore, because home prices are based on supply-and-demand, the price for a newly-built home was down, on average, 7 percent nationwide in January.
With the federal home buyer tax credit expiring soon, home buyers in Blairsville, Blue Ridge and Ellijay will likely create new demand for homes. And with Housing Starts holding steady near 500,000, that should push prices higher through the spring months.
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Consumer Sentiment has been on the rise since last February and it’s something to which Blairsville Home Buyers should pay attention.
The affordability of your next home may hinge on consumer confidence.
As the economy recovers from a near-the-brink recession, many of the elements of a full recovery are in place. Business investment is returning, household spending is expanding, and financial systems are gaining strength.
Consumer confidence is at a 2-year high.
What’s missing from the recovery, though, is jobs growth. Another net 20,000 jobs were lost in January. Data like that hinders economic growth.
That said, twenty-thousand jobs lost is a much better figure than the several hundred thousand that were shed per month throughout early-2009, but it’s still a net negative number. Not only does household income drop when Americans lose jobs but so does the average American’s confidence in his or her own economic future.
This is one reason why jobs growth is so closely watched by Wall Street — jobs are linked to higher confidence levels which, in turn, is believed to spur consumer spending.
Consumer spending represents 70% of the U.S. economy.
As confidence rises, it could be good news for the economy, but bad news for home buyers. More spending expands the economy and, all things equal, that leads mortgage rates higher.
Same for home prices. More confidence means more buyers which, in turn, squeezes the supply-and-demand curve in favor of sellers.
Later this morning, the University of Michigan will release its February Consumer Sentiment survey. If the reading is higher-than-expected, prepare for mortgage rates to rise and home affordability to worsen.
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The economy’s improving but lending standards are not. Nationally, banks are making mortgage approvals harder to come by.
Underwriting guidelines are tightening.
The data comes from the Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey to its member banks. The Fed asks senior bank loan officers around the country to report on “prime” residential mortgage guidelines over the most recent 3 months and whether they’ve tightened.
For the period October-December 2009:
- Roughly 1 in 4 banks said guidelines tightened
- Roughly 3 in 4 banks said guidelines were “basically unchanged”
Just 2 of 53 banks said its guidelines had loosened.
Combine the Fed’s survey with recent underwriting updates from the FHA and generally tougher standards for conventional loans and it’s clear that lenders are much more cautious about their loans than they were, say, in 2007.
Today’s Blairsville home buyers and would-be refinancers face a bevy of new borrowing hurdles including:
- Higher minimum FICO scores
- Larger downpayment requirements for purchases
- Larger equity positions for refinances
- Lower debt-to-income ratios
So, if you’re on the fence about whether now is a good time to buy a home, or make that refi, consider acting sooner rather than later. It doesn’t necessarily matter that mortgage rates are low, or that there’s an up-to-$8,000 home purchase tax credit for households that qualify. With each passing quarter, fewer and fewer applicants are eligible to take advantage.
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Like real estate, it appears that foreclosure activity is a local phenomenon, too.
As reported by RealtyTrac.com, more than half of all foreclosure-related activity in 2009 came from just 4 states:
1. California
2. Florida
3. Arizona
4. Illinois
More than 1.4 million filings made in 2009 are attributed to the above states. Furthermore, each ranks in the Top 10 for 2009 Foreclosures Per Capita.
The other states are Nevada, Utah, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan and Colorado.
Versus 2008, foreclosures are up 21 percent nationwide and that’s a big number, but a deeper look at RealtyTrac’s annual reports reveals a more positive undertone on the housing market.
1. 40 states fell below the national Foreclosures Per Capita average in 2009
2. Foreclosure activity fell on an annual basis in 10 states as compared to 2008
Foreclosures are still prevalent, though, and buying homes in foreclosure in Blairsville, Blue Ridge, and Ellijay Georgia continues to be big business. First-time buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors each are bidding aggressively.
Distressed homes account for one-third of home resale activity, according to an industry trade group.
That said, buying foreclosures can be tricky.
First, properties are often sold “as-is” and the cost of repairs may unwind the home’s status as a “value buy”. Furthermore, a lender may require specific fixes to be made prior to closing and that, too, costs money.
Second, buying a foreclosed home in Georgia isn’t as streamlined as buying a “normal” home. Closing on a foreclosure can be a 120-day process or longer. A 4-month time-frame may not fit your schedule.
And, third, finding foreclosures can be difficult. Despite the growth in foreclosure search engines, it still takes a good real estate agent to uncover the best homes at the best prices.
Read the complete foreclosure report and take a peek at RealtyTrac’s foreclosure heat maps. If you like what you see, Contact Me or give me a call at 706.994.8686.
There’s still good deals in the foreclosure market — you just have to know where to find them
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